Special votes are increasingly turning towards Labour, away from National

So the final election results are out. The results weren’t too surprising… They produced the second of the two likely scenarios I outlined in my last blog:

  1. Golriz Ghahraman (Green) and Angie Warren-Clark (Labour) are in. Nicola Willis and Maureen Pugh (both National) are out.
    • Winston remains king/queenmaker. A Nat-NZF government would have 65/120 seats. A Lab-NZF-Green government would have 63/120.

I’m pleased to have Ghahraman and Warren-Clark in there, as they both seem like good people. They also make the Greens’ caucus 75% women and Labour’s caucus 45.65% women (but meanwhile National’s caucus is lowered to 30.36% women):

Screen Shot 2017-10-07 at 7.55.20 PM.png

Here’s how everyone did in the end (for similar numbers for previous elections, see my previous blog):

Screen Shot 2017-10-07 at 6.58.14 PM

In 2020 we could have even more seats swinging from National to Labour after special votes are counted, if the following four trends continue:

  1. Labour did their best ever on special votes: 18.91% better than on preliminary votes. Their previous best was last election, where they did 14.16% better.
  2. National did their worst ever on special votes: 21.12% worse than on preliminary votes. Their previous worst was last election, where they did 16.86% worse.
  3. There were more special votes than ever, even more than the Electoral Commission predicted: 422,094 or 16.29% of votes.
  4. This was the worst election ever for minor parties. National and Labour together won a massive 81.34% of party votes: the highest since party votes have existed:

Screen Shot 2017-10-07 at 7.21.49 PM

Meanwhile, TOP did an impressive 63.18% better on specials than on preliminary votes. Only a few parties have done better than this on specials:

  • Internet Mana in 2014 (97.58% better),
  • Mana in 2011 (77.34% better),
  • Māori in 2005 (68.76% better),
  • Green in 2002 (85.52% better).

This brought TOP up to 2.4% of total votes. This was towards the upper end of what we could have expected based on the polls, but it isn’t anything like the massive polling error that would have been required for them to crack 5%.

One fact from the final results that could give some hope to left-leaning people: The combined National-ACT vote has dropped below 45% for the first time since 2005.

Anyway, now that the final results are in, Winston claims he’ll finalise a coalition agreement within the next five days. Will he do it? Who will he go with? How productively will he work with them? Only time will tell… I can’t predict Winston Peters’ actions with spreadsheets.

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